“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view.”

Kurzweil plotted Moore's LawThe observation that transistor counts on chips roughly double every two years — drove expectations for computing growth., genome sequencing, and internet growth on log charts to argue the 21st century would feel nothing like the 20th. Believers cite AI scaling; skeptics cite cherry-picked curves — but the essay shaped how tech talks about exponentials.

The manifesto for exponential thinking in Silicon Valley.

It linked hardware trends to a broader law of accelerating returns.